In this year’s edition of the NCAA Men’s March Madness tournament, fans have likely noticed a surprising lack of chaos, with fewer nail-biters, less buzzer-beaters, and most notably, an absence of Cinderella stories from underdog mid-majors. That sense of calm isn’t just a feeling, it’s backed by the numbers. The 2025 tournament has delivered just four official upsets (defined as wins by teams seeded five or more lines lower than their opponents), marking the second-fewest in tournament history. Only the 2007 bracket featured fewer upsets, a tournament dominated by the No. 1 seed Florida Gators, who cruised to a national championship. Now, the 2025 Gators are just one victory away from a chance to repeat their historic run amidst a relatively upset-free field once again.
In the 14 games that made up the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four, not a single lower-seeded team emerged victorious. It became glaringly clear that there was a significant gap between the No. 1 seeds and No. 2 seeds and an even wider canyon between the top two seeds and the rest of the field. The only exception was St. John’s, where Coach of the Year Rick Pitino’s team was once again bested by John Calipari, this time with Arkansas pulling off the victory. This disparity in team caliber led to an all-No. 1 seed Final Four for the first time since 2008 and capped off a tournament that showcased the sheer dominance of the top-ranked teams.
In this rare scenario where the top-ranked teams have reigned supreme, it’s only fitting that the 2025 national championship features a showdown between Houston and Florida. Below, I’ll highlight each team’s path to the title and predict whether the Cougars will claim their first-ever championship or if the Gators will return to the pinnacle of college basketball.
Houston:
Houston’s run to the national championship is their first since back-to-back championship appearances in 1983 and 1984, when NBA Hall-of-Famers Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler lost back-to-back heartbreakers against NC State and Georgetown. After years of mediocrity in the 1990s and early 2000s, the Cougars appointed Kelvin Sampson, who took Oklahoma to 11 NCAA Tournament appearances in 12 years as a Sooner. Despite initially struggling in his first three years at the helm, Sampson has been on a tear since 2018 and led Houston to seven consecutive tournament appearances.
The Cougars’ 2025 tournament run began with a commanding 40-point demolition of SIU Edwardsville, followed by a narrow escape against a Gonzaga team that had reached 12 consecutive Sweet Sixteens. In their next challenge, Houston faced 4th-seeded Purdue in Indianapolis, where they struggled offensively, hitting just one field goal in the final seven minutes. However, junior Milos Uzan stepped up, capping off a leading-scoring night with a clutch game-winning layup to propel the Cougars to a hard-fought 62-60 victory.
In the Elite Eight, woeful shooting (combined 5-27) by Volunteer’s guards Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier allowed Houston to pummel Tennessee and easily move on to their first Final Four since 2021. Awaiting them were the Duke Blue Devils, the heavy championship favorites led by freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. The previous year, Duke defeated the Cougars 54-51 in the Sweet Sixteen after All-American Jamal Shead exited early with an ankle injury. It seemed like déjà vu for Houston as they found themselves trailing 67-61 with just 34 seconds left. However, Emmanuel Sharp hit a clutch three-pointer, sparking a miraculous 9-0 run that stunned everyone in the Alamodome and secured Houston’s spot in the national championship.
Florida:
Similar to Houston, Florida’s basketball program is aiming to reclaim its former glory after spending years outside the national spotlight. Between 1996-2015, the Gators made 14 NCAA Tournament appearances over 19 seasons, including four trips to the Final Four with Billy Donovan leading the way. Most notably, Donovan’s squads etched their place in history by winning back-to-back national championships in 2006 and 2007, led by a core of future NBA players, Al Horford, Joakim Noah, and Corey Brewer, who dominated UCLA and Ohio State in those title games. Following Donovan’s departure, the Gators experienced flashes of tournament success under Michael White, but his tenure ended in 2022 when he took the head coaching job at Georgia. Florida then turned to rising star Todd Golden, who guided the University of San Francisco to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. In 2024, Golden’s squad nearly erased a 13-point second-half deficit in the first round against Colorado, but a clutch jumper by Chaminade High School graduate KJ Simpson sealed a 102-100 heartbreak.
The Gators’ 2025 tournament run began with an offensive explosion against Norfolk State, putting up a first-round high of 95 points in a dominant blowout victory. Similar to Houston, Florida faced a daunting second-round opponent in an under-ranked No. 8 seed, none other than the back-to-back defending national champion UConn Huskies. Despite the Huskies’ championship pedigree, Florida’s physicality in the paint and relentless defensive pressure disrupted UConn’s rhythm, allowing the Gators to pull away late for a 77-75 victory and punch their ticket to the Sweet Sixteen. Awaiting the Gators in the Sweet Sixteen were the Maryland Terrapins, fresh off a buzzer-beating win over 12th-seeded Colorado State. Despite a 27-point outburst from standout freshman Derik Queen, Florida’s depth proved decisive, as five players scored in double figures to push the Gators into their first Elite Eight since 2017. However, the next round seemed destined to mark the end of the road. The Texas Tech Red Raiders, led by an aggressive defensive front, built a nine-point lead with just under three minutes remaining. But Florida, fueled by the poise of Walter Clayton Jr. and the hustle of Thomas Haugh, unleashed a furious 18-4 closing run to shock the Red Raiders and punch their ticket to the Final Four.
Their semifinal matchup against Auburn was more than just a battle of SEC powerhouses—it reunited Florida head coach Todd Golden with his former mentor Bruce Pearl, under whom he served as an assistant from 2014 to 2016. Florida trailed 46-38 at halftime, but as they had done all tournament, the Gators clawed their way back. A combination of clutch perimeter shooting paired with ghastly free throw shooting by the Tigers flipped the game’s momentum, ultimately grinding out another hard-earned win to secure a spot in the national championship. After only one 30-plus point performance all year, Clayton JR. became the first player since Larry Bird to have back-to-back 30-point games in the Elite Eight and national semifinals since he did it for Indiana State in 1979.
Prediction:
Since 1985, there have been nine national championship games featuring a No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed, with last year’s UConn–Purdue clash being the most recent. Only two of those matchups have ended in double-digit margins, and this year’s battle between two of the clutchest teams in the country is poised to follow that trend with another nail-biter. While Florida enters the title game with a more explosive offense, Houston compensates with suffocating defense, allowing a nation-best 58.5 points per game.
Both teams are as battle-tested as they come, and there’s no question the best player on the floor will be Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., whose shot-making and leadership have carried the Gators through several tight moments. But there’s a certain desperation and destiny that accompanies Houston’s pursuit of its first national title under longtime head coach Kelvin Sampson. Fueled by a nation-leading 39 percent clip from beyond the arc and the poise of senior guard LJ Cryer, who’s seeking to become the first player ever to win a national championship with two different programs, the Cougars will refuse to let this moment slip away.
Prediction: Houston Wins 78-74
