As the first week of the annual NCAA men’s tournament draws to a close, zero perfect brackets remain despite only a few big upsets. This year’s bracket boasts a stacked field of talented teams across the board.
In the round of 64, the 14th seeded Oakland Grizzlies took down a Kentucky Wildcats team burdened with heavy expectations. In the east region, Ivy league champions Yale orchestrated a comeback victory to stun the 4th seeded Auburn Tigers. An interesting trend reappeared with three 11 seeds advancing to the round of 32 for the third time in the last ten years. Over the weekend, sixteen more games were played, and the madness was absent as the sixth seeded Clemson Tigers were the only team to pull off an upset. For the fifth time in tournament history, all one and two seeds moved on to the second week.
Below, I’ll go through each of the eight games in the Sweet Sixteen and provide some background information on the matchups.
The East
(1) UConn versus (5) San Diego State. In the 2023 March Madness tournament, Uconn swept through its opponents and soundly beat San Diego State by 17 in the championship game. A year later, senior Jaedon LeDee and the Aztecs have caught fire again and are back for revenge. Unfortunately for San Diego State, it appears that the Huskies are poised to become the first repeat champions since Florida in 2006-07.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – UConn 86.2%. My Pick – UConn.
(2) Iowa State versus (3) Illinois. After beating number one seed Houston by 28 points in the Big 12 tournament final, Iowa State has waltzed into the Sweet Sixteen with double digit wins over South Dakota State and Washington State. The same can be said for Illinois, as their combined margin of victory in their two wins has been +42. While the Fighting Illini are still searching for a noteworthy victory, the dominant play of Terrence Shannon Jr just might push them over the edge against the Cyclones
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Iowa State 58.4%. My Pick – Illinois.
The West
(2) Arizona versus (6) Clemson. In one of the more intriguing matchups, sixth seeded Clemson takes on Arizona as sizable underdogs. The Tigers are led by a plethora of seasoned vets, and have comfortably won their first two games of the tournament despite being underdogs in both. The Wildcats are led by North Carolina transfer Caleb Love, and have gotten past Long Beach State and Dayton with two explosive scoring performances. Experience will not be a determining factor in this showdown as both teams run a starting lineup with four seniors. If Clemson is able to limit Arizona’s three point shooting, an upset is more than possible.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Arizona 79%. My Pick – Clemson.
(1) University of North Carolina versus (4) Alabama. Blue blood versus new blood. Under head coach Nate Oats, the Crimson Tide have found prolonged success with three trips to the Sweet sixteen and a conference championship. For the Tar Heels, they seek another deep tournament run after shockingly missing it last year. Alabama leads all division one teams in points per game with 90.7, while UNC is also top 20 in scoring offense. If the Tar Heels can properly utilize fifth-year senior Armando Bacot against Alabama’s four guard lineup, a spot in the elite eight looks promising.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – North Carolina 50.4%. My Pick – North Carolina.
The South
(2) Marquette versus (11) North Carolina State. After erasing a halftime deficit versus 15th seeded WKU and squeaking past Colorado, Marquette faces off against the Cinderella of the big dance. NC State is the highest remaining seed in the tournament and comes fresh off a thrilling win against Jack Gohkle and his Oakland squad. Riding a seven game win streak, the Wolfpack have turned to their dominant duo of DJ Burns and DJ Horne. While the Wolfpack’s magical run is anything but a fluke, the Golden Eagles have looked dominant with the return of star point guard Tyler Kolek and seem likely to advance to the weekend.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Marquette 77%. My Pick – Marquette.
(1) Houston versus (4) Duke. In Houston’s first year in the newly expanded Big 12, they proved their previous success was no fluke with a conference championship. Following a chaotic overtime victory in which the Cougars saw four players foul out, they now face the red hot Blue Devils. Duke ended the regular season on a two game losing streak, but have responded strongly with back to back blowout wins. Freshman sensation Jared McCain has finally hit his stride, and a flurry of other Blue Devils like Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach have been instrumental. Despite Duke’s star power, this experienced Houston squad led by Kelvin Sampson has what it takes to outlast second year coach Jon Scheyer and his Blue Devils. And the “neutral” site being Dallas, Texas won’t do Duke any favors.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Houston 76.5%. My Pick – Houston.
The Midwest
(1) Purdue versus (5) Gonzaga. Just like the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers, Purdue returns to the Sweet 16 after an embarrassing defeat to 16th seeded Fairleigh Dickinson last year. Led by a reinvigorated Zach Edey, the Boilermakers have steamrolled through their first two opponents with a +67 margin of victory. For the experienced Bulldogs, they disposed of Mcneese St in the first round and pulled away from fourth seeded Kansas to book a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. The aforementioned Edey is the heavy favorite for the Wooden award, and will be the main point of emphasis for Gonzaga’s defense. While the Bulldogs match up well with Boilermakers, Purdue’s determination for redemption following last year’s early exit will fuel them to victory.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Purdue 77.3%. My Pick – Purdue.
(2) Tennessee versus (3) Creighton. The last matchup between these two teams was a 34-28 victory for Tennessee in 1934. Fast forward to 2024 and the Volunteers look to avenge their Sweet Sixteen defeat with the help of senior sensation Dalton Knecht. After dominating Saint Peters, Tennessee was able to squeak by the tenth seeded Texas Longhorns despite shooting 33% from the field and 12% from beyond the arc. Creighton also hopes to avenge a crushing defeat in the final seconds of the Elite Eight last year with the development of Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander. The Blue Jays’ excellent three-point shooting coupled with their deep experience makes them a threat to any team in the field. To book another trip to the Elite Eight, they need to prioritize minimizing fouls and effectively neutralizing Knecht’s impact on the game.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor – Tennessee 57.8%. My Pick – Creighton.
Catch all the Sweet Sixteen games on Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, the winners of the two games in each region will face each other in the Elite Eight to secure a spot in the Final Four.
